SPIRE: School of Politics, International Relations and Philosophy @ Keele University

By Dr. Helen Parr


A Liberal-Conservative coalition government is an unprecedented step in British politics. As Professor Andrew Gamble pointed out in his talk at Keele last week, there has never previously been a formal coalition government in peacetime in Britain: 1918-22 was predominantly the Conservatives supporting Liberal Prime Minister Lloyd George; 1931 was a Conservative government with a few Labour and Liberal ministers and 1974 saw a minority Labour government with a further general election called later that year. What’s more, the Liberal Democrats share a heritage predominantly with the British left. It was disquiet with the Labour party of the 1970s and early 1980s that led to the formation of the Social Democratic Party in 1981, the merger of which with the Liberals later in that decade created the modern Liberal Democrats. The current coalition thus owes everything to the visions of David Cameron and Nick Clegg. Cameron wanted to be Prime Minister, of course, but he also sought to consolidate his own modernisation of the Conservative party. Clegg, once it became apparent the scale of the concessions the Conservatives were willing to make, saw his opportunity to press for historic Liberal Democrat goals: greater civil and individual liberty, alongside parliamentary and electoral reform.


So, will it work? Well, it depends upon what one wishes it to do. But, for it genuinely to usher in a new era of British politics, then it must succeed in introducing constitutional reform. Liberal Democrats wary of the coalition may be mollified by advances in civil liberties, and attracted by Vince Cable’s potential influence in banking reform, but they are unlikely to tolerate the deal for a longer period unless there is significant advance in this area. There are promising signs. The coalition agreement promises to bring forward the Wright Committee recommendations in full. These recommendations would give more power to parliament over the conduct and management of parliamentary business and scrutiny of legislation. It also heralds a committee to examine reform of the House of Lords, with the aim to establishing a mainly or fully elected second chamber, on the basis of PR. The introduction of a fixed term parliament further helps to diminish the power of the executive; although the provision that parliament can only be dissolved upon a vote of 55% of the House appears to make it harder to hold the government to account through a no confidence motion, trampling over the former convention that 50% plus one was enough to topple a government.


It is over electoral reform, however, where the radical possibilities of the coalition will be tested most severely. The Lib Dem election manifesto pledged to introduce proportional representation via the Single Transferable Vote. The coalition agreement promises to hold a referendum on whether to introduce not STV, but the Alternative Vote. The Alternative Vote is more similar to the existing system of first past the post: one single member is elected per constituency, but voters are allowed to rank their preferences. If there is no majority for a first preference candidate, second and subsequent preferences from the losing candidate(s) are re-allocated until a majority is reached. AV therefore ensures that all MPs have a majority of constituents favouring them, but it is not proportional. A third or minor party will not win seats based upon their share of the vote, but will have to compete, as they currently do, for outright victory.




In other words, if the referendum agrees to change the voting system – and how the referendum will be conducted will be a major area for debate – the Lib Dems will still face a tremendous difficulty at the 2015 election, assuming that the government makes it that far. AV could be seen as a first step towards more radical reform: but how will this be attained? By 2015, the Lib Dems will most likely have to compete against the Conservatives and Labour in a voting system no more likely to favour them than the current one. Depending then upon the positions of Conservatives and Labour towards further electoral reform – and Labour may come out in favour of proportional representation – the Lib Dems could find themselves torn. How this will play out is extremely difficult to foresee, but also very important for the Lib Dems. If this central reform does not manifest, the Lib Dems could find themselves crushed.